Two sides of inflation: global trends vs local realities
In the second instalment of our eight-part 2025 Investment Outlook series, we dive into inflation from both top-down and bottom-up perspectives. Hugh Gimber of JPMorgan Asset Management examines global inflation trends, contrasting sticky inflation risks in the US — driven by immigration and policy changes — with cooling inflation in Europe as growth slows and labor markets ease. He also highlights how these differing dynamics will shape central bank policies worldwide.
Meanwhile, Alec Cutler, manager of the Orbis Global Balanced fund, takes a structural view, exploring long-term inflation drivers such as re-shoring, labor power, and government deficits. He critiques policy missteps, particularly in the UK, where energy strategies have contributed to rising costs. Despite short-term unpredictability, Alec predicts inflation will exceed historical averages, reshaping investment strategies for the years ahead.
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